The vulnerability of the agricultural sector to both climate change and variability is well established in the literature. The general consensus is that changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Research has also shown that specifically in tropical regions, with many of the poorest countries, impacts on agricultural productivity are expected to be particularly harmful. The vulnerability of these
countries is also especially likely to be acute in light of technological, resource, and institutional constraints. Although estimates suggest that global food production is likely to be robust, experts predict tropical regions will see both a reduction in agricultural yields and a rise in poverty levels as livelihood opportunities for many engaged in the agricultural sector become
increasingly susceptible to expected climate pressures.
While contemporary policy dialogue has focused on mitigating emissions that induce climate change, there has been relatively limited discussion of policies that can address climate impacts. First, climate variability is already a problem both in developed and developing countries. Second, even moderate climate change provides added impetus to promoting local adaptation options concurrently with the pursuit of global efforts on mitigation strategies. That is, adaptation to climate change and variability (including extreme events) at the national and local levels is regarded as a pragmatic strategy to strengthen capacity to lessen the magnitude of impacts that are already occurring, could increase gradually (or suddenly), and may be irreversible.
Consequently, several key themes have emerged from the current literature on adaptations to climate change. First, given the range of current vulnerability and diversity of expected impacts, there is no single recommended formula for adaptation. Second, responsibility for adaptations will be in the hands of private individuals as well as government. Third, the temporal dimension of policy responses is likely to have a significant role in the effectiveness of facilitating adaptation to climate change. One set of measures will decrease the short-term vulnerabilities of the agricultural sector through adaptations to weather effects. These measures will therefore address concerns with climate variability. However, more often than not policies aimed at reducing vulnerability to short term climate variation will not reduce vulnerability to long term climate change. Another set of strategies that reduce vulnerability to climate change will thus be necessary. This second set of adaptation measures include options such as improving water management practices, modernization by adopting and utilizing new technologies, and migrating permanently away from the agricultural sector. Finally, a third set of adaptation options need to incorporate economic, institutional, political, and social policy changes that promote sustainable development. The pursuit of such “no-regrets” options through an interdisciplinary approach is
fundamental to strengthening local capacity to adapt. In conclusion, it is clear that in the short run, adaptation options in the agricultural sector need to reflect what is currently known about climate conditions. In contrast, in the long term it is necessary for national sectoral policy and assistance provided by international agencies to developing countries to reflect expected changes in the future from climate change. The focus of policymakers should thus be on formulating and implementing policies that promote better adaptation. In particular, incentives that promote adaptation need to be formulated and incorporated into project designs. It is also clear that policymakers should promote dynamic adaptation, as it is unlikely that there will be one solution for all time. Finally, incentives that promote adaptation policies should be incorporated into poverty reduction and other sustainable development policies that in turn will also enhance the resiliency of the agricultural sector.changing crop types and location, including migrating permanently away from the agricultural sector. Finally, a third set of adaptation options need to incorporate economic, institutional, political, and social policy changes that promote sustainable
development. The pursuit of such “no-regrets” options through an interdisciplinary approach is
fundamental to strengthening local capacity to adapt. In conclusion, it is clear that in the short run, adaptation options in the agricultural sector need to reflect what is currently known about climate conditions. In contrast, in the long term it is necessary for national sectoral policy and assistance provided by international agencies to developing countries to reflect expected changes in the future from climate change. The focus of policymakers should thus be on formulating and implementing policies that promote better adaptation. In particular, incentives that promote adaptation need to be formulated and incorporated into project designs. It is also clear that policymakers should promote dynamic adaptation, as it is unlikely that there will be one solution for all time. Finally, incentives that promote adaptation policies should be incorporated into poverty reduction and other sustainable development policies that in turn will also enhance the resiliency of the agricultural sector.
Climate Change and Agriculture A Review of Impacts and Adaptations
